Tag Archives: personal finance

Buying the Long-Term Trend

15 May

The best way to figure out when to purchase gold or silver is by following long (at least 10 year) trends. In my opinion, short term analysis gives you short sighted impulses. Long term trends give you sustainable expectations.

With that said, look at this chart and note the similarity between now and the 2008

10 year gold price per ounce

And for silver, note the return to the 2008 trend:

10 Year Silver Price

With both of these charts, you see the one crucial thing: silver and gold are placing themselves in an area that is highly synchronous with a long-term, multi-year, trend.

It seems like silver may come close to its low of 26, but I can’t imagine that you could buy it any more than you could 5 months ago, when it was last there. And gold may go a bit lower, but based on this chart, I have a hard time imagining it will break lower than 1500.

I’m curious for anyone else to give his/her input, but to me, it seems like a good time to buy. What do you think?


A Suggestion for CNBC

16 Apr

There are rarely clear options for those who seek truth in financial markets today. On one side of the fence, you have people like Dennis Gartman, who come out on every other side of gold depending on the month, care nothing about fundamental analysis, and like to come on TV to brag about every trade that they (allegedly) made like they just won big at a casino, only they can never tell you when the next one will be. And then you have the Melissa Lees of the world who rehearse and prepare just well enough every day in order to know how to address questions to the Gartmans of the world and repudiate or ignore others who actually do fundamental analysis.

ImageDon’t get me wrong, both of these people seem to have plenty of experience and a fair amount of data in their preparation, but they have no curiosity.Truth as a concept is lost on them. CNBC gives you other options, like the hyperactive Jim Cramer and the reactionary Rick Santelli, but what kind of personal responsibility do they take for their speech? How much real research can you do before you host your daily show?

These people are supposed to be real experts, but I see no reason to trust them. Give every person who regularly appears on CNBC a hypothetical $10,000, tell them to invest it in any assets they choose, and make a Fox-Box in the upper left hand corner that shows the total return of that portfolio every time they host their show. Then you have transparency.

Will it happen? I don’t think so. This kind of exposure would be so detrimental to the idea of a free exchange of equally unaccountable ideas, it would probably make many segments of programming untenable. It would have been like making a camera crew follow Barry Bonds or Lance Armstrong around whenever they spoke with their “trainers”, “doctors”, and other unseemly associates. America believes the lie and idolizes the liars far too often for the person who wants to know what’s really going on. But one day the charade will end.

The Best Method of Wealth Preservation

2 Apr

The threat of having money stolen causes people and nations to take drastic measures to ensure monetary security. Loading up a Brinks safe with 20 million nickels and making an entire country cashless are just a couple of the millions of imperfect measures humans take to guard that which they have earned. Why do we engage in such strange and unconventional approaches to keeping our money safe?

I think it’s because humans are as devious as their imaginations allow. Thieves are always capable of thinking one step ahead of the people they rob. So the more you think about keeping your money safe, the more you realize how difficult that is.

We don’t want to lose the product of our effort. That’s why we care about real inflation, no doubt the greatest theft of our lifetime.

For many of us, we are taking drastic measures to prepare for difficult times to come. There’s a potential of famine, economic instability, war, even government confiscation of assets. So, people buy food, store up precious metals, buy massive safes, stockpile weapons and ammunition, and store assets off-shore in lieu of such predictions coming to pass.

One thing is for certain: no one is 100% certain about what will work when that time comes.

So it’s easy to get paranoid. I think zerohedge.com sums it up well when they point out, “On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”

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Contemplating the Future for Silver

24 Mar

Contemplating the Future for Silver

For those of you who have thought about silver, here is a chart I put together on a whim. I took a basic 10 year chart, because I prefer longer term estimates over short term analysis. I have no idea what the future looks like, but I just tried to extract a pattern from the past and replicate it.

The one thing I’m sure of is that there will be more volatility in the future than there was in the past.

Again, since I have no technical training, I have no personal recommendations for your own investment, except to keep a diverse portfolio. Any decisions you make should be made between you and your personal investment adviser.

Right and Wrong Motives for Selling

15 Mar

For those of you who understand that you are your own central bank, who know that fiat currency is no longer a viable way of preserving wealth, and who have begun to invest in metals or other goods as a store of wealth, what is the next step for your investment? The next step should be making a goal. I don’t mean a goal of quantity, but a goal of expenditure. You should determine what should lead you to sell your investment and spend it.

There are two things you do not want to do. First, you do not want to sell it based on a quick move in the price. Your investments are sound, aren’t they? What are you going to move in to tomorrow after you sell them? Don’t play the market. Invest long term. It is a bank account, not a play to get more worthless fiat currency.

Second, you do not want to store up your possessions indefinitely. Listen to James 5:3, “Your gold and your silver have rusted; and their rust will be a witness against you and will consume your flesh like fire. It is in the last days that you have stored up your treasure!” Storing up treasure for treasure’s sake is no good, because it violates God’s will. If you do simply store up treasure for your own greed, you will enter into judgment for doing so.

So, number one, don’t sell foolishly; and number two, don’t store foolishly.

But what is a good motive for selling?

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